Case Study: Wayanad Journey through Climate Change and Disaster
Anandi Mathur
Aug 26, 2024
Wayanad Landslides
In the early hours of July 30, Wayanad district in Kerala faced a devastating tragedy as relentless monsoon rains triggered multiple landslides. Entire villages were swept away, claiming over 250 lives, injuring many, and leaving more than 200 people missing. The district, known for its fertile landscapes and agricultural prosperity, was plunged into despair.
Climate Change Impact
Kerala, receiving the second-highest monsoon rainfall in India, recorded an average annual rainfall of about 3,107 mm, with 75% of it from June to September 2023. Yet, this year saw a deficit with only 1,222.5 mm of rainfall by the end of July, a -5% deviation from the normal average. While the Kannur district saw 21% above-average rainfall, Wayanad faced a 14% deficit, illustrating the erratic and extreme weather patterns exacerbated by global warming.
Dr. Gopakumar Cholayil from the Kerala Agricultural University highlighted that the inter-annual variability of rainfall has markedly increased since the 1980s, with extreme rainfall events becoming more frequent in both monsoon and post-monsoon periods. This trend has profoundly impacted Wayanad, which once enjoyed consistent rainfall. Several farmers lament the unpredictable rain patterns, with fewer rainy days but more intense downpours, disrupting traditional agricultural practices and livelihoods.
Kerala State’s Climate Change
Research by Dr. Mariam Zachariah at Imperial College London underscores how climate change has transformed Wayanad’s weather, making summers hotter and drier while intensifying monsoon rains. This has heightened the risk of landslides, as dry soils fail to absorb heavy rains, leading to dangerous run-offs.
Human activities, including deforestation and shifts in farming practices towards more profitable crops like coffee, have further stressed the environment. Coffee plantations now cover nearly 68,000 hectares in Wayanad, impacting water absorption and soil stability- keeping soils dry while increasing humidity.
Leveraging Geospatial Technology, Collaborating for Digital Preparedness Is The Way Forward Towards Disaster Management
India’s National Monsoon Mission (MM), established in 2012, has significantly improved the nation’s monsoon prediction capabilities. The mission’s second phase (MM-II), initiated in 2017, focuses on predicting weather and climate extremes, particularly in agriculture, hydrology, and energy sectors. Despite budget cuts to the Atmosphere and Climate Research – Modelling Observing Systems and Services (ACROSS) program, MM-II has continued to develop crucial climate applications.
The recent landslides in Wayanad highlight the critical need for accurate and timely disaster forecasting. Although agencies like the IMD, Geological Survey of India, and Central Water Commission issue forecasts and alerts, there have been instances where these predictions were not precise enough. By integrating collaboration at the right hour and enhancing digital preparedness, India can improve disaster management. As advanced geospatial tools are already providing real-time data, enabling predictive modelling, and supporting the dissemination of warnings, it is the interdepartmental collaboration that when enhanced will bring about effective change. Furthermore, India’s efforts in assisting South Asian nations with weather services and capacity building underscore the importance of regional collaboration in disaster preparedness and resilience.
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